Statistics of Price Movements of Ardagh Group S.A. (ARD)

The price movements of Ardagh Group S.A. (ticker ARD) are summarized in five ways:

• Table 1. Statistics of daily price changes using the closing prices
• Table 2. Statistics of daily price changes using the closing and opening prices
• Table 3 – 7. Statistics of daily price changes when ARD opened with an increase of 1%, 2%, 3%, 4%, or more than 5%
• Table 8 – 10. Statistics of stock price changes in the 20 days after ARD had a big price move
• Table 11. Statistics of daily price changes in the 20 days after ARD moved 5% with twice the 30-day average volume

The statistics are calculated using ARD's price data across 975 trading days from 2017 to 2020.

Table 1. Statistics of ARD one-day price changes

In this table, the one-day price change is calculated using the closing price and the previous day's closing price.

In the past 975 trading days, 46.5% of the time (453 days), ARD closed above the previous day's closing price. 48.7% of the time (474 days), it closed below the previous day's closing price. 4.8% of the time (47 days), it did not change.

Also see: VIX price movement study.

ARD Price Change (%)	Number of Days	% of Total Sessions
19 – 20%	1	0.10%
16 – 17%	1	0.10%
15 – 16%	1	0.10%
11 – 12%	1	0.10%
10 – 11%	1	0.10%
7 – 8%	2	0.21%
6 – 7%	4	0.41%
5 – 6%	6	0.62%
4 – 5%	18	1.85%
3 – 4%	23	2.36%
2 – 3%	50	5.13%
1 – 2%	131	13.45%
0 – 1%	214	21.97%
0%	47	4.83%
0 – -1%	246	25.26%
-1 – -2%	129	13.24%
-2 – -3%	39	4.00%
-3 – -4%	26	2.67%
-4 – -5%	14	1.44%
-5 – -6%	8	0.82%
-6 – -7%	4	0.41%
-7 – -8%	3	0.31%
-8 – -9%	2	0.21%
-12 – -13%	1	0.10%
-19 – -20%	1	0.10%
-25 – -26%	1	0.10%

Table 2. Statistics of ARD: Closing vs. Open

In this table, instead of using the closing price of the previous day, the opening price is used to calculate the one-day price change of ARD.

44.0% of the time (429 days), ARD closed above the opening price. 51.5% of the time (502 days), it closed below the opening price. 4.5% of the time (44 days), it closed where it started.

Closing - Open (%)	Number of Days	% of Total Sessions
21 – 22%	1	0.10%
11 – 12%	1	0.10%
9 – 10%	1	0.10%
8 – 9%	3	0.31%
7 – 8%	1	0.10%
6 – 7%	4	0.41%
5 – 6%	4	0.41%
4 – 5%	13	1.33%
3 – 4%	19	1.95%
2 – 3%	51	5.23%
1 – 2%	117	12.00%
0 – 1%	214	21.95%
0%	44	4.51%
0 – -1%	252	25.85%
-1 – -2%	134	13.74%
-2 – -3%	54	5.54%
-3 – -4%	32	3.28%
-4 – -5%	10	1.03%
-5 – -6%	8	0.82%
-6 – -7%	5	0.51%
-7 – -8%	2	0.21%
-8 – -9%	1	0.10%
-10 – -11%	1	0.10%
-11 – -12%	1	0.10%
-14 – -15%	1	0.10%
-21 – -22%	1	0.10%

Table 3. One-day performance when ARD opened 5% higher than previous close

In the past 975 trading days, ARD opened more than 5% higher than the previous day's closing price 9 times. Of these days, 22.2% (2 days) had closing prices above the opening price, and 77.8% (7 days) had closing prices below the opening price.

Closing - Open (%)	Number of Days	% of Total Sessions
9 – 10%	1	11.11%
8 – 9%	1	11.11%
-1 – -2%	1	11.11%
-3 – -4%	2	22.22%
-5 – -6%	1	11.11%
-6 – -7%	1	11.11%
-7 – -8%	1	11.11%
-10 – -11%	1	11.11%

Table 4. Closing vs. open when ARD opened 4–5% higher

On 5 days, ARD opened 4–5% higher than the previous day's closing price. Of these days, 20.0% (1 days) had closing prices above the opening price, and 80.0% (4 days) had closing prices below the opening price.

Closing - Open (%)	Number of Days	% of Total Sessions
1 – 2%	1	20.00%
0 – -1%	1	20.00%
-1 – -2%	1	20.00%
-2 – -3%	1	20.00%
-11 – -12%	1	20.00%

Table 5. Closing vs. open when ARD open 3 – 4% higher

5 times ARD opened 3 – 4% higher than the previous day's closing price. Among these days, 40.0% (2 days) closed above the opening price, 60.0% (3 days) closed below the opening price.

Closing - Open (%)	Number of Days	% of Total Sessions
1 – 2%	1	20.00%
0 – 1%	1	20.00%
-1 – -2%	2	40.00%
-4 – -5%	1	20.00%

Table 6. Closing vs. open when ARD open 2 – 3% higher

15 times ARD opened 2 – 3% higher than the previous day's closing price. Among these days, 40.0% (6 days) closed above the opening price, 60.0% (9 days) closed below the opening price.

Closing - Open (%)	Number of Days	% of Total Sessions
8 – 9%	1	6.67%
4 – 5%	1	6.67%
2 – 3%	2	13.33%
0 – 1%	2	13.33%
0 – -1%	1	6.67%
-1 – -2%	5	33.33%
-2 – -3%	1	6.67%
-3 – -4%	1	6.67%
-5 – -6%	1	6.67%

Table 7. Closing vs. open when ARD open 1 – 2% higher

55 times ARD opened 1 – 2% higher than the previous day's closing price. Among these days, 32.7% (18 days) closed above the opening price, 65.5% (36 days) closed below the opening price.

Closing - Open (%)	Number of Days	% of Total Sessions
3 – 4%	3	5.45%
2 – 3%	4	7.27%
1 – 2%	5	9.09%
0 – 1%	6	10.91%
0%	1	1.82%
0 – -1%	19	34.55%
-1 – -2%	5	9.09%
-2 – -3%	9	16.36%
-3 – -4%	1	1.82%
-4 – -5%	1	1.82%
-6 – -7%	1	1.82%

Table 8. Periods when ARD moved 15% or more

In this table, we track the price movements in the 20 days after ARD had a one-day price change of at least 15%.

Date	Price Change	Price Change after 15% Move
Days after:		1	4	7	10	13	16	19
20200319	19.5%	-8.9	-1.2	6.0	-2.0	.8	15.8	14.3
20200324	16%	-4.8	2.2	-5.5	-2.8	11.6	10.2	17.2
20200406	15%	-7.7	6.1	4.7	11.3	.8	2.1	.1
20200312	-19.7%	4.0	-18.4	-12.8	2.7	2.0	-7.4	8.3
20200318	-25.6%	19.6	24.0	24.8	20.9	30.6	38.5	34.5

Table 8a. ARD average price changes following a 15% up day

Of the 975 trading days from 2017 to 2020, there were 3 days in which ARD was up more than 15%. This table shows the average price changes over the 3 days.

Average Type	Average Price Change
Days after:	1	4	7	10	13	16	19
Avg for Change ≥ 15%	-7.1	2.3	1.7	2.2	4.4	9.4	10.5

Table 8b. ARD average price changes following a 15% down day

Of the 975 trading days from 2017 to 2020, there were 2 days in which ARD was down more than -15%. This table shows the average price changes over the 2 days.

Average Type	Average Price Change
Days after:	1	4	7	10	13	16	19
Avg for Change ≥ -15%	11.8	2.8	6.0	11.8	16.3	15.5	21.4

Table 9. Periods when ARD moved 10% or more

In this table, we track the price movements in the 20 days after ARD had a one-day price change of at least 10%.

Date	Price Change	Price Change after 10% Move
Days after:		1	4	7	10	13	16	19
20200319	19.5%	-8.9	-1.2	6.0	-2.0	.8	15.8	14.3
20200324	16%	-4.8	2.2	-5.5	-2.8	11.6	10.2	17.2
20200406	15%	-7.7	6.1	4.7	11.3	.8	2.1	.1
20201022	11.8%	.7	.2	-.3	4.3	5.9	5.5	9.9
20200408	10.1%	4.3	1.3	7.9	.3	-2.6	-1.3	-9.0
20200309	-12%	3.8	-19.3	-36.7	-32.4	-20.3	-20.9	-28.2
20200312	-19.7%	4.0	-18.4	-12.8	2.7	2.0	-7.4	8.3
20200318	-25.6%	19.6	24.0	24.8	20.9	30.6	38.5	34.5

Table 9a. ARD average price changes following a 10% up day

Of the 975 trading days from 2017 to 2020, there were 5 days in which ARD was up more than 10%. This table shows the average price changes over the 5 days.

Average Type	Average Price Change
Days after:	1	4	7	10	13	16	19
Avg for Change ≥ 10%	-3.3	1.7	2.6	2.2	3.3	6.4	6.5

Table 9b. ARD average price changes following a 10% down day

Of the 975 trading days from 2017 to 2020, there were 3 days in which ARD was down more than -10%. This table shows the average price changes over the 3 days.

Average Type	Average Price Change
Days after:	1	4	7	10	13	16	19
Avg for Change ≥ -10%	9.1	-4.6	-8.2	-2.9	4.1	3.4	4.9

Table 10. Periods when ARD moved 5% or more

In this table, we track the price movements in the 20 days after ARD had a one-day price change of at least 5%.

Date	Price Change	Price Change after 5% Move
Days after:		1	4	7	10	13	16	19
20200319	19.5%	-8.9	-1.2	6.0	-2.0	.8	15.8	14.3
20200324	16%	-4.8	2.2	-5.5	-2.8	11.6	10.2	17.2
20200406	15%	-7.7	6.1	4.7	11.3	.8	2.1	.1
20201022	11.8%	.7	.2	-.3	4.3	5.9	5.5	9.9
20200408	10.1%	4.3	1.3	7.9	.3	-2.6	-1.3	-9.0
20200317	7.7%	-25.7	-20.6	-6.5	-7.1	-15.7	-1.3	1.1
20190225	7.4%	-3.2	-1.4	-.5	-1.0	-2.5	-.8	-4.1
20190710	6.7%	-.8	-5.3	-10.5	-8.7	-13.2	-13.0	-12.1
20190401	6.5%	-1.7	-.6	-.3	.3	.3	2.5	.4
20200326	6.5%	-.8	-3.9	3.8	10.1	6.9	13.9	5.9
20180426	6.2%	3.2	-1.4	-4.3	-7.1	-7.5	-9.9	-7.5
20181231	5.8%	.0	-3.1	3.3	.7	3.3	4.8	7.7
20200604	5.6%	5.0	.6	-7.5	-7.6	-4.5	-11.2	-3.5
20200904	5.4%	-5.2	-5.7	-6.6	-3.8	-12.6	-9.9	-11.6
20171031	5.2%	1.2	-2.7	-6.6	-7.8	-8.0	-7.9	-7.8
20190628	5.1%	-.7	1.9	3.8	8.0	1.5	-2.3	-1.7
20200803	5%	.3	3.4	6.3	5.5	3.5	9.2	6.9
20190814	-5%	.2	.2	2.1	.4	-.9	2.1	3.4
20181010	-5.2%	-.7	-.1	-3.6	-12.6	-17.2	-14.1	-14.9
20200908	-5.2%	-1.9	.1	.5	-3.1	-9.0	-6.8	-5.8
20200220	-5.5%	2.8	-6.8	-8.6	-7.9	-21.5	-39.0	-52.1
20200923	-5.5%	.7	3.9	1.9	-2.2	2.3	1.7	5.6
20181024	-5.7%	-5.7	-4.3	-1.9	.2	-8.8	-9.4	-10.9
20181025	-5.7%	-.7	-.3	2.0	6.1	-1.4	.2	-3.5
20180205	-5.8%	1.0	-3.9	-3.7	-1.6	1.7	-.9	-1.3
20181112	-6.5%	1.9	3.6	-.2	-1.8	.8	-.2	-2.2
20200306	-6.5%	-12.1	-31.8	-25.1	-39.4	-34.3	-29.4	-34.8
20200227	-6.8%	1.9	9.5	-12.8	-32.4	-25.8	-39.9	-34.8
20200311	-6.8%	-19.7	-11.9	-28.6	-22.6	-17.0	-23.3	-21.0
20200421	-7.3%	-1.0	-3.9	-2.6	-10.2	-6.3	-13.3	-10.6
20200225	-7.5%	1.0	-.9	-.1	-14.8	-33.8	-48.1	-44.5
20200407	-7.6%	10.1	12.8	15.6	11.6	7.5	12.4	3.7
20200611	-8.6%	1.6	.5	3.1	-2.6	1.3	5.9	-.9
20200320	-8.8%	-1.9	15.5	14.7	4.2	21.9	24.9	27.9
20200309	-12%	3.8	-19.3	-36.7	-32.4	-20.3	-20.9	-28.2
20200312	-19.7%	4.0	-18.4	-12.8	2.7	2.0	-7.4	8.3
20200318	-25.6%	19.6	24.0	24.8	20.9	30.6	38.5	34.5

Table 10a. ARD average price changes following a 5% up day

Of the 975 trading days from 2017 to 2020, there were 17 days in which ARD was up more than 5%. This table shows the average price changes over the 17 days.

Average Type	Average Price Change
Days after:	1	4	7	10	13	16	19
Avg for Change ≥ 5%	-2.6	-1.8	-.8	-.5	-1.9	.4	.4

Table 10b. ARD average price changes following a 5% down day

Of the 975 trading days from 2017 to 2020, there were 20 days in which ARD was down more than -5%. This table shows the average price changes over the 20 days.

Average Type	Average Price Change
Days after:	1	4	7	10	13	16	19
Avg for Change ≥ -5%	.3	-1.6	-3.6	-6.9	-6.4	-8.3	-9.1

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